December 12, 2018



RHNA (Regional Housing Needs Assessment) is how the State of California plans to solve its housing crisis. SANDAG is responsible for distributing the numbers of needed housing to every city and county in its jurisdiction.   SANDAG has never given specific target numbers of housing to each of the Plan Areas that make up the City of San Diego. Instead, they have used one total for all 52 Plan Areas.  That number is 88,096 as reported to the State agency responsible for implementing RHNA.  The 5th Cycle of the Housing Element is the controlling document for regional and specific “Fair Share” each community is mandated to include in their community  plans.

Below is a map of the latest SANDAG Series 13 Regional Growth Forecasts of predicted housing needed by census tract in our Community Plan Areas with a baseline of 2012 to an end date of 2035.  SANDAG and the City are not using these forecasts as RHNA assessments for our specific Plan Areas.  Instead, they use the “Smart Growth” maps, “TOD” and “City of Villages” concepts to arrive at the numbers of housing each of the 52 Plan Areas will to plan for in the updates of our Community Plans.

So what? The problem with not having specific RHNA numbers comes when the 52 Community Plan Areas want to update their plans and have no specific numbers with which to work. (View 52 plan areas here:   SANDAG has targeted the Plan Areas that have Transit Hubs or identified Transit Oriented Areas to  shoulder all of the needed housing to meet both the demands of SANDAG’s population growth models and the State of California’s mandatory RHNA Allocations.

Read more about RHNA (Regional Housing Needs Assessment).

**The below map shows SANDAG’s housing needs forecast (Series 13) for the period of 2012 to 2035.  These numbers are NOT RHNA numbers and therefore are not the housing targets that SANDAG is attempting to meet in our Plan Areas.

Note that the above figures taken from SANDAG’s Series 13 Data trough their public “Data Surfer,” were completed using the “Tract” as location for specific numbers.  But, when the numbers are generated using “CPA” Community Plan Areas, the numbers have huge discrepancies.  Clairemont’s total for the search with census tract as location is 1,944 units, but using the same source (Series 13) Data Surfer with location set to CPAs, Clairemont’s total housing number is 2,322.  For Linda Vista, the total cenus tract search is 1,621, but using the CPA search, it is 2,588.  Some of Linda Vista’s discrepancy may be due to the census tract area searches that came up with no data (indicated as ND* above).  Map provided by James LaMattery.

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